Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station and binned into temperature ranges for settlement. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcome brackets, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Polymarket's decimal odds format and tiered fee structure (0.5% maker, 2% taker on most weather markets) differs markedly from Kalshi's fixed 2% round-trip fee and Betfair's commission-based model, which can shift perceived value depending on position size and holding period.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima: Changi Airport records average highs of 31–32°C in May, with extremes rarely exceeding 34°C or falling below 29°C across the past two decades. Historical data from the Meteorological Service Singapore shows May typically experiences pre-monsoon heat with occasional afternoon thunderstorms that can suppress peak temperatures by 1–2°C. The narrow historical range means outcome brackets cluster tightly, making basis-point differences in odds critical for traders comparing across Polymarket, Smarkets (which offers tighter spreads on niche weather markets), and Kalshi's US-focused weather offerings.

Traders should monitor the Indian Ocean Dipole index and the Madden–Julian Oscillation phase in late April 2026, as these drive regional convection patterns affecting May weather. The UK Met Office and Singapore's Meteorological Service issue monthly outlooks in early May; any anomalous heat advisory or wet-season extension would shift the distribution. Wunderground's historical data feed, the official resolution source, occasionally shows 12–24 hour delays in finalisation, creating settlement timing risk that varies by platform's dispute-handling protocols.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Singapore on May 25? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.