Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport's official meteorological station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, meaning traders must commit positions before the final afternoon heat spike occurs. This creates a timing asymmetry: the highest temperature typically occurs between 14:00 and 16:00 local time (Singapore Standard Time, UTC+8), yet the market closes at 20:00 SGT, allowing full-day observation before resolution.

Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily maxima. May averages 31–32°C at Changi, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 34°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity. Across competing platforms, Polymarket's binary-style range buckets differ markedly from Kalshi's decimal-odds presentation of the same underlying event; Betfair and Smarkets typically offer tighter spreads on weather markets but require stricter KYC verification in certain jurisdictions. The implied probability divergence between platforms often reflects fee structures—Polymarket's 2% maker fee versus Kalshi's variable commission—rather than genuine disagreement on meteorological outcomes.

Traders should monitor the Meteorological Service Singapore's seasonal forecasts and any El Niño or La Niña advisories issued before late May, as these influence regional temperature patterns. Recent monsoon transition data from the Met Office or Japan Meteorological Agency may signal anomalous heating. Changi's urban heat island effect and airport infrastructure changes are secondary factors; the primary driver remains broader atmospheric circulation patterns across the Strait of Malacca region.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.