Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is treating a top-end temperature reading at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 4 August as effectively unpriced rather than impossible. On-chain, the position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not whether Tokyo is hot in August, but whether the Wunderground Haneda history page prints a maximum that lands inside the contract’s chosen Celsius band by the settlement window.

That near-zero price is loose with historical context. Tokyo’s August climate is usually hot and humid, with long-run guidance clustering around low-30s Celsius daytime highs, while forecasts for early August 2026 still point to highs around 31–33°C and lows in the mid-20s.[1][9][15][16] Tokyo has also already logged August highs above 35°C in 2026, showing that the city can move well beyond its monthly average on isolated days.[11] For a range market, the key read is that the outcome depends on the single highest reading at Haneda, not the broader city forecast, so brief spikes matter more than averages.

Traders should watch the hourly evolution of heat, cloud cover and rain over Haneda rather than headline city forecasts, because late-afternoon maxima often decide these contracts.[2][8] Early-August weather guidance also points to frequent rain and typhoon-season volatility, which can cap daytime highs if cloud and precipitation arrive early, but can just as easily leave a brief hot window before storms build.[3][9][16] With the settlement clock running to 12:00 UTC, the practical Polymarket question is whether the day’s highest Haneda reading is already close to the eventual settlement bucket, or whether later sunshine and humid air still allow a higher print.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.