Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the **highest Tokyo Haneda temperature for 6 August** as a low-conviction summer-heat outcome on its Polygon-based, USDC-settled conditional tokens, with the crowd still effectively split across the upper-20s to mid-30s buckets rather than leaning hard into a single figure. The market’s present **0% YES** reading is consistent with an open ladder-style contract where the eventual payoff depends on which temperature band Wunderground records for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station before the settlement window closes at noon UTC.

The historical frame points to a city that is normally hot enough in August for the market to revolve around the low-30s, not around cool-weather tails. Tokyo’s August averages are around **31°C** for daytime highs, while recent forecast pages show daily highs of **about 88°F/31°C** for early August and typical August ranges in the **26–33°C** band, which is why the highest-temperature buckets tend to cluster tightly. Japan has also already seen severe early-summer heat this year, with a “cruelly hot day” above 40°C reported in central Japan in July, reinforcing that the upper-end outcomes cannot be dismissed even if they remain less likely than mid-30s prints.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s synoptic setup, typhoon spillover, and whether cloud cover or rain suppresses the afternoon peak; Tokyo’s temperature can move quickly once the sun is up, so the intraday high matters more than the morning reading. Watch official and near-real-time forecast updates, then check the Wunderground Haneda history page once the station’s final daily maximum is posted, because that is what ultimately determines settlement rather than the broader Tokyo forecast.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.