Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Tokyo Haneda Airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively treating a July heat outcome as fully priced out even though the event is still open until the settlement window closes. The contract resolves off the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 27 July 2026** in Wunderground’s daily history page, so the relevant question is not Tokyo weather in general but the single-day maximum at that airport station.

That 0% print sits against a climate backdrop that still allows meaningful afternoon spikes in Tokyo in late July. Typical July conditions in Tokyo are hot and humid, with sources citing daytime highs around **30°C** and broader Japan July ranges of roughly **17°C to 30°C** or even **25°C to 33°C** in major cities, alongside heavy rainfall and high humidity[1][2][3]. For a binary or ranged temperature market settled on the day’s *maximum*, the market is really asking whether Haneda gets a notably warm peak before the cutoff, not whether the month is broadly summer-like.

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s live weather evolution, any late-morning or early-afternoon heating under clearer skies, and whether showers suppress the high reading before the settlement deadline. Because the resolution source is a specific airport station, local cloud cover, sea breeze, and rain timing matter more than headline Tokyo forecasts. The contract also sits on Polymarket’s standard on-chain structure, so positions are held in **USDC** via **Polygon**-based conditional tokens, with the market price reflecting the crowd’s current view of where that station’s maximum will land rather than the broader city forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.