Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices this event at 0% across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual reading can occur. This is a historical resolution contract—the date has already passed relative to when traders might reasonably acquire positions, making the current pricing a technical artefact rather than a genuine probability assessment. On Polygon, USDC holders can still interact with the conditional token structure, though liquidity and meaningful price discovery have effectively ended.

Tokyo's July temperatures cluster reliably between 32–37°C, with extreme heat waves occasionally pushing toward 40°C. The city recorded 41.1°C in July 2023 during an exceptional heatwave, and 39.7°C in July 2018. Most years see peak daily temperatures in the 34–36°C range during late July. Historical volatility around this period stems from the Pacific high-pressure system's intensity and timing; weak systems produce cooler readings whilst strong ridges drive sustained heat. Comparing 28 July specifically: the date has seen 35–37°C readings in recent decades, placing it squarely within Tokyo's typical late-July envelope.

Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks would have provided actionable signals before settlement, though such data is now historical. Traders monitoring this contract would have tracked upper-atmosphere pressure patterns and tropical cyclone activity in early July, both of which influence whether heat persists or breaks. Wunderground's station-level data from Haneda remains the binding source, eliminating ambiguity around measurement location or methodology.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.