Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pricing **0% YES** for a Tokyo Haneda Airport high that falls into the market’s target range, so the board is effectively saying the observed maximum is expected to land outside that bucket. The contract settles on the **highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 31 July 2026**, using the Wunderground history page, and the pay-off is routed through standard Polymarket mechanics: USDC collateral, Polygon settlement, and conditional tokens that resolve once the source data is final.

That zero is easy to read against Japan’s current heat backdrop. July 2025 produced exceptional readings across the country, including **41.2°C in Tamba** and later **41.8°C in Isesaki**, while Tokyo itself typically runs far lower in late July, with recent Haneda-area daily highs around the low 30s °C rather than anything near the national extremes.[9][14][8] For a Haneda-specific contract, the more relevant benchmark is the station history rather than nationwide records: if the airport tops out in the low-to-mid 30s, only the lower resolution bands come into play, and the current 0% price reflects that expectation.

A trader watching this market should focus on intraday Tokyo weather evolution, not headlines alone. The key catalyst is whether a hot, clear afternoon develops over eastern Honshū, since Haneda’s maximum can still be lifted by local sunshine and wind direction even when surrounding prefectures are cooler. The practical dependency is the Wunderground daily history page at settlement, which can differ from forecast services if late-day warming or an abrupt sea-breeze shift changes the final maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.