Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges in Celsius. This market settles against historical weather data from Weather Underground, capturing the single daily maximum rather than an average, which means a brief spike during afternoon hours could determine the outcome. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, creating a hard deadline for data finalisation.

Tokyo's late May climate typically sits between 22–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability across major platforms suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparing book structures: Polymarket displays decimal odds natively, whilst Kalshi and Betfair show implied probabilities more prominently in their interfaces, affecting how traders perceive tail-risk scenarios. Smarkets' fractional odds format appeals to European punters but requires mental conversion. KYC requirements vary—Kalshi enforces stricter US residency checks than Polymarket's broader international access, which may fragment the trader pool for this Tokyo-specific event.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early May, which typically provide 14-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the Pacific influence late-spring Japanese weather patterns; the current neutral phase suggests near-normal temperatures are more probable than extremes. Fee structures differ meaningfully: Polymarket charges 2% on winnings, Kalshi takes 0–5% depending on volume, and Betfair's commission scales from 2–5%, affecting expected value calculations on tight ranges.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.