Highest temperature in Toronto on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Toronto airport temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which puts the market as if an August 7 high in the relevant Celsius band is effectively impossible. On Polymarket, that price reflects USDC-denominated trading on Polygon, with the outcome ultimately settling through conditional tokens once Weather Underground’s Toronto Pearson Intl Airport station data is checked against the specified Daily Observations table rather than the day-high summary.

For context, Toronto in early August usually sits in the mid-20s Celsius, with long-run August highs around 25–26°C and frequent rain or humid spells rather than extreme heat. Recent 2026 forecast material pointed to temperatures mostly in the upper 20s Celsius for the first week of the month, with some thunderstorm risk and warm conditions across southern Ontario, which is consistent with a modest summer high rather than a sharp heat spike. That makes the relevant question less about whether Toronto can get warm at all and more about whether the official station observation reaches into the next temperature band before the settlement window closes.

A trader watching this market would focus on the Toronto Pearson hourly and daily observation feeds, plus any late-day convective forecast updates that could shift the maximum by a degree or two. CityNews reported on 7 August that cloudy skies and a chance of showers were still hanging over the GTA, which matters because cloud cover and showers can cap the daytime high even when the broader air mass is warm. Because settlement depends on the recorded observation in the Wunderground table, not a forecast or headline summary, the key dependency is the exact station reading during the closing hours before noon UTC on 7 August.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

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