Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, Warsaw will record a daily high temperature at Chopin Airport, and Polymarket is currently pricing all temperature ranges at 0% probability, indicating either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue. The market structure divides the outcome space into discrete Celsius bands, with traders committing USDC on Polygon to conditional tokens that resolve based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station and date.

Warsaw's July climate sits firmly in the summer peak, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 23–28°C during this period. The city's 30-year average high for late July hovers around 25°C, though heat waves have pushed readings above 30°C in recent decades—notably in 2015 and 2019 when temperatures exceeded 32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no active liquidity in any range bucket or a market that has not yet attracted sufficient trader participation to establish meaningful odds across the temperature spectrum.

Traders monitoring this contract should track European summer weather patterns and any forecast models released in the weeks preceding late July 2026. The North Atlantic Oscillation and high-pressure systems over Central Europe typically drive temperature variance during this window. Wunderground's historical data feed, the designated settlement source, updates daily and remains accessible through the standard interface; traders should verify the station identifier (EPWA) matches Chopin Airport to avoid settlement disputes. Current zero pricing across all ranges presents either a liquidity opportunity or a sign the market requires seeding before meaningful trading emerges.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.