Highest temperature in Wellington on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a maximum temperature on 28 July 2026, with traders currently pricing all outcome ranges at zero probability on Polymarket's USDC-settled contract. The market resolves based on historical data from Weather Underground's Wellington station records, converted to Celsius, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on the resolution date. Conditional tokens representing each temperature band will settle against whichever range captures the actual high, making this a straightforward atmospheric measurement contract with no discretionary elements.

July sits within Wellington's mid-winter window, when daily highs typically range between 10–13°C, though the city's exposed coastal location and variable weather patterns create meaningful variance around these norms. Historical July extremes at the airport station have reached into the mid-teens Celsius during warmer spells, whilst cold snaps occasionally see highs fail to exceed 8°C. The current zero-probability pricing across all bands suggests either minimal liquidity or traders awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasting windows; winter weather in the Southern Hemisphere remains notoriously difficult to predict beyond ten days.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Southern Oscillation Index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Tasman Sea during late June and early July 2026, as these drive Wellington's winter weather patterns. MetService New Zealand typically releases reliable ten-day forecasts around mid-July, which will sharpen expectations for the specific date. Any significant high-pressure system tracking across the South Island during late July could push temperatures several degrees above seasonal norms, whilst a deep low-pressure system would suppress highs considerably below the historical median.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.