Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **lowest temperature in Hong Kong on 8 August** at **0% YES** today, with settlement in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens once the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract is published. The contract resolves to the HKO’s **Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)** for the date, measured to one decimal place, so the relevant question is whether the morning minimum falls into the market’s chosen range rather than whether the day feels cool in general.

Seasonally, Hong Kong’s 8 August climate points to a very warm overnight floor, which helps explain why the crowd has not assigned meaningful odds to a low-end outcome. The Hong Kong Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 8 August shows a mean minimum of **26.9°C**[1], while other August climate pages put typical lows around the **26–28°C** area and note that the month is persistently humid and hot[4][13][17]. Historical August records also show that lows can drift a little lower than normal, but not often by much; a cited August record low of **19.2°C** underlines the tail risk, while recent historical summaries around early August cluster in the high 20s[4][17].

For traders, the main catalysts are the HKO’s morning and afternoon readings, any late rainfall or thunderstorm influence, and the timing of the final Daily Extract, because the market cannot resolve until the official file is posted. HKO’s own public forecast for 8 August indicates cloudy, hot conditions with a **28–35°C** range and a chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms later, which supports a relatively elevated overnight minimum rather than a sharp cooldown[9][18][20]. That means the live question on Polymarket is less about a dramatic weather shift and more about whether the official minimum lands in a narrow band around the seasonal norm before the data is locked in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.