Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Hong Kong temperature contract at **3% YES** right now, which is a low probability for a late-July minimum that must be measured in Celsius and settled from the Hong Kong Observatory’s final Daily Extract. On Polymarket, the position is held through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the market resolving via **conditional tokens** once the Observatory publishes the official “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” for 31 July 2026.

That pricing sits against Hong Kong’s usual July climate, where the city is typically hot and humid rather than cool. Historical July norms point to daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius and overnight lows in the mid-to-high 20s, while broader climatology shows July lows rarely dropping much below the upper 20s Fahrenheit equivalent in the city’s summer pattern, which helps explain why a sub-20s outcome is not the base case. Recent monthly guidance from AccuWeather also has Hong Kong’s July 2026 lows clustering around 79° to 82°F, reinforcing that the market is mostly about whether clouds, rain, or a stronger overnight cooling trend can push the minimum lower than normal.

The main catalysts are the **Hong Kong Observatory’s short-range forecasts**, any **thunderstorm or rain warnings**, and the overnight weather pattern before the settlement cutoff, because the contract uses the *lowest* reading for the day rather than a daytime high. The Observatory has already issued a **Thunderstorm Warning** for the morning of 31 July 2026, which signals unsettled conditions and could matter if showers persist into the night.[10] Traders should also watch for the HKO’s final post-day publication, since the market cannot resolve until the relevant data are finalised in the daily climate extract.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Alternative UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.