Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's daily minimum temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's low before the market locks. Across major prediction platforms, this market shows material divergence in how temperature bands are priced. Polymarket's fractional odds structure allows tighter granularity on narrow ranges, whilst Kalshi's binary format forces traders into broader buckets—a meaningful distinction when May temperatures in Tokyo cluster tightly around 18–22°C. Betfair's decimal odds presentation and Smarkets' lay-betting mechanics create different hedging opportunities for those holding correlated positions in other Asian weather markets.

May in Tokyo sits in late spring, with historical lows typically ranging from 12°C to 20°C depending on weather systems. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or sparse liquidity in this particular market. Comparable May 24 data from prior years shows considerable variance—2023 recorded a low of 16°C, whilst 2022 saw 14°C—indicating that seasonal patterns alone provide limited predictive power. KYC requirements differ sharply between platforms: Polymarket's lighter verification approach versus Kalshi's stricter US-focused compliance may affect which traders actively price this market, potentially leaving inefficiencies.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issues five-day forecasts each morning, with updates becoming more reliable from 21 May onwards. Tropical storm activity in the Western Pacific during late May can suppress temperatures significantly, whilst high-pressure systems drive them upward. Traders should monitor the JMA's official forecast releases and cross-reference Wunderground's historical data feeds, which occasionally lag by several hours post-settlement.

Methodology

We read Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.