Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Los Angeles will record a peak temperature at its airport weather station on 26 May 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved against historical records from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range before the cutoff, though the actual high typically occurs in early afternoon local time.

May temperatures at LAX historically cluster between 68°F and 78°F, with extremes ranging from 61°F to 97°F across the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability across Polymarket suggests either insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds or that traders are awaiting range brackets to appear before committing capital. On Kalshi, weather markets often display tighter spreads due to their binary yes/no structure and lower fees (roughly 2% versus Polymarket's variable taker fees), though Kalshi's stricter KYC requirements limit participation in some jurisdictions. Betfair and Smarkets typically quote decimal odds rather than implied probabilities, which can obscure the true market consensus when comparing across platforms—a 1.5 decimal on Betfair equals roughly 67% implied probability, whereas Polymarket displays this directly.

Late May in Los Angeles sits between spring and early summer conditions, with sea-breeze patterns and marine layer influence moderating coastal temperatures. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, updated weekly through May, will be the primary catalyst for position shifts. Any unusual atmospheric setup—heat domes, Santa Ana wind patterns, or tropical moisture intrusion—would move probabilities substantially, though such events remain difficult to predict beyond ten days with confidence.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.