Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will determine which range this contract settles into. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES across Polygon, meaning traders are either avoiding the contract entirely or the interface is displaying a technical lag. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when automated systems report slightly different peaks during the day.

August temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 78–88°F, with the airport's all-time August high of 102°F set in 1933. Recent decades show the median high for mid-August around 82–84°F, though heat waves have pushed readings into the low 90s roughly once every three to five years. The 2023 summer saw multiple days exceed 90°F in New York City, whilst 2024 remained closer to historical norms. Current pricing at 0% suggests the market may not yet be calibrated, or traders are waiting for seasonal forecasts closer to the settlement date to assess whether August 2026 tracks toward cooler or warmer conditions.

The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days before mid-August, which will be the key catalyst for meaningful price movement on this contract. Any Atlantic hurricane activity or heat dome formation in late July could shift expectations materially. Traders should monitor NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for seasonal temperature anomalies and watch for any revision to long-range forecasts as summer 2026 progresses. The USDC settlement on Polygon will execute once Weather Underground data is finalised post-16 August.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.