Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract as if a very specific LaGuardia reading on 7 August will land in the **92–93°F** bucket, with the crowd currently assigning **0%** to YES and nearly all of the market concentrated elsewhere. Because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the summary high/low display, traders are effectively buying exposure to the exact station-level peak rather than a general New York City forecast. The event resolves through Polymarket’s usual on-chain setup: USDC collateral on Polygon, with outcome shares represented by conditional tokens that pay out according to the final temperature band.

The current pricing sits against a city that has repeatedly produced sharp late-summer spikes, especially during humid airmasses and weak-wind setups. Recent comparable heat episodes have shown how quickly LaGuardia can run hotter than the broader city picture; in the early-July 2026 heat wave, LaGuardia reached **104°F** while Central Park and JFK also posted triple-digit or near-triple-digit readings, underscoring how airport stations can diverge materially from headline NYC references.[14] That makes the settlement source important: a trader relying on a generic NYC forecast can miss the exact station outcome that counts here.[3][4]

For watchable catalysts, the main inputs are the forecast evolution for the New York metro on 7 August, plus any change in cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, rain chances, or wind strength that would cap the daytime maximum. Late updates from the National Weather Service and temperature histories on Weather Underground are the practical checks, since the market remains open to revisions until the next day’s datapoint appears.[3][10] AccuWeather’s daily August page also shows how quickly the expected high for the date can shift as the event approaches, which matters for traders marking the contract against the live order book rather than against an abstract climatology.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.