In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years away, prediction markets are already establishing prices across the Republican succession landscape and Democratic primary contenders, with meaningful trading volume emerging. Traders who spot mispriced candidates early stand to capitalise substantially before the candidate pool consolidates.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's constitutional ineligibility for a third term leaves the Republican nomination wide open:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Incumbent VP advantage, ideologically aligned with Trump
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Governer with strong approval ratings, recovering from 2024 primary setback
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centre-right positioning, international relations expertise
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor with strong record, corporate sector experience
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Populist economic messaging resonates with base
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficiently broad field permits surprise contenders
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Leading contender with party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet visibility from Transportation role
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — California's governor with substantial national recognition
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Governer of crucial swing state Pennsylvania
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Sufficient time horizon permits emerging figures
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (essentially even odds at this juncture)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Engaging with 2028 markets at this stage provides:
- Greater volatility (heightened uncertainty translates to amplified profit potential from prescient positioning)
- Extended timeframes to maintain exposure as fresh information emerges
- Capacity to establish positions in candidates before catalytic announcements shift valuations upward
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprise developments and candidate announcements regarding participation or withdrawal.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent demonstrates that sitting VPs possess structural advantages yet face no guarantee of success. George H.W. Bush (1988) secured the nomination following Reagan; Al Gore (2000) failed to replicate this outcome. Markets currently position Vance as the leading contender without assigning overwhelming probability.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Nomination outcomes crystallise following the respective party conventions — ordinarily scheduled for July and August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- State-level primary markets — including Iowa and New Hampshire — typically commence 6-12 months prior to voting; consult PolyGram's political markets guide for current availability.