Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available markets. Kalshi offers the only federally regulated option for US-based participants. Manifold provides an entertaining, non-monetary forecasting environment. For traders across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram remains the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in annual turnover. Most liquid contracts centre on political and cryptocurrency events |
| Markets | More than 1,000 concurrent markets. Coverage spans politics, digital assets, athletics, scientific developments, and entertainment |
| Fees | No house edge. Typical bid-ask spread ranges from 1–3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon network (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability (excluding United States). Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional traders and those with analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi stands as the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market serving the United States market. It provides access to American traders who cannot participate on Polymarket and has experienced considerable expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operation.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates on a virtual-currency system called "mana" rather than actual funds. This makes it an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and engaging in collective prediction exercises — though it does not appeal to those seeking monetary returns. The platform hosts in excess of 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probability estimates submitted by its forecaster community. Real-money trading is not available; however, it excels at enabling users to build forecasting credentials and tackle complex world events. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus data when studying forecast calibration and reliability.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair operates as the pioneering betting exchange, processing billions annually across sports and political wagering. Strengths include traditional currency support, FCA oversight, and exceptional depth in sports markets. Limitations comprise a 2-5% commission structure on net profits, absence of blockchain-based asset markets, and comparatively sparse political market offerings relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants in Europe and worldwide seeking maximum trading depth and the broadest selection of available contracts: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the blockchain component whilst granting full access to Polymarket's comprehensive market data. Start trading on PolyGram →