In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of liquidity and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the top choice for Americans seeking regulatory oversight. Manifold excels for recreational and community-driven forecasting without financial stakes. European traders will find Polymarket accessed through PolyGram to be the optimal solution.
The prediction market sector has seen remarkable growth throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide breaks down how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly trading volume. Most liquid contracts centre on political events and digital assets |
| Markets | 1,000+ live markets spanning politics, digital currencies, athletics, scientific outcomes, entertainment |
| Fees | No house fee. Bid-ask spreads range from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon blockchain (requires cryptocurrency experience) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding the United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional forecasters possessing a competitive information advantage |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market operator. It provides access to US residents who cannot participate on Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent venue for developing forecasting abilities and engaging with collective intelligence — though it does not appeal to those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated prediction contracts.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probabilistic estimates produced by its specialist community. Without monetary incentives, it nevertheless provides substantial value for establishing a public forecasting record and analysing complex international events. Its forecasting methodologies are frequently referenced in scholarly investigations of prediction quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the original peer-to-peer betting exchange, processing enormous volumes across sports and electoral markets each year. Strengths include fiat payment options, FCA authorisation, and exceptional depth in sports betting. Limitations encompass a 2-5% take on net profits, absence of blockchain-based assets, and comparatively sparse political market selection versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders outside the US seeking maximum market depth and the broadest contract selection: Polymarket accessed via PolyGram. PolyGram simplifies the blockchain experience while preserving your connection to Polymarket's complete liquidity pool. Start trading on PolyGram →