In this guide
Climate and environmental prediction markets are a growing category, driven by the measurable, data-rich nature of climate outcomes and the increasing financial stakes around environmental policy. Scientists, policy researchers, and environmental professionals find genuine edge here.
Active Climate Prediction Markets (2026)
- 2026 hottest year on record (vs 2023/2024/2025): ~45-52%
- Global CO2 concentration exceeds 430 ppm: ~72-78%
- Arctic sea ice summer minimum sets new record low: ~38-44%
- EU carbon price above €100/tonne in 2026: ~42-48%
- COP31 agreement reached with binding 1.5C commitment: ~18-24%
- US carbon tax legislation passes in 2026: ~8-12%
- Global EV sales exceed 25% of new car sales in 2026: ~55-62%
Climate Data Edge Sources
- NOAA/NASA temperature records: updated monthly with preliminary data ahead of official announcements
- Mauna Loa CO2 observatory: real-time atmospheric CO2 concentration data
- NSIDC sea ice extent: daily satellite measurements of Arctic and Antarctic ice
- IEA energy data: monthly electricity generation and EV sales statistics
- EU ETS auction prices: weekly carbon credit auction results
Why Climate Markets Are Undertraded
Climate prediction markets are relatively new and attract fewer specialist traders than political or sports markets. This means:
- Wider spreads — higher transaction cost but also larger potential mispricing
- Less competition — your edge doesn't erode as quickly
- Genuine information advantage for those who closely track climate data
FAQ
- What data sources do temperature record markets use?
- NOAA NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) global temperature anomaly data, typically released monthly with 1-2 month lag.
- Are there renewable energy prediction markets?
- Yes — global solar capacity milestones, wind energy installation records, and national grid clean energy percentage targets are all tradeable on PolyGram.
- Can I trade carbon credit price prediction markets?
- EU ETS carbon price markets are listed. Other carbon market instruments (California cap-and-trade, voluntary markets) appear during significant policy events.