In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where users trade YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. All settlements are handled automatically through smart contracts.
What is Polymarket fundamentally? Polymarket operates as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's built-in edge, you exchange positions with other market participants who hold opposing views. The market price continuously reflects what the broader community believes is the probability of an outcome — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing possible outcomes. Each share is worth $1 upon a YES resolution, or nothing if the result is NO. Purchasing a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40) signals your belief that the event has a 40% likelihood of occurring. Success means your investment multiplies; failure means your capital is forfeited.
Polymarket differs from conventional sportsbooks in that it operates without a house edge (the "vig"). Market prices emerge solely from the interplay of buyer and seller demand.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket is built atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution extending Ethereum). This architecture delivers:
- Complete transparency and on-chain auditability of every transaction
- Automated execution of deposits, order matching, and settlement via smart contracts
- Protection against fund seizure or outcome manipulation by Polymarket operators
- Near-instantaneous settlement rather than multi-day clearing periods
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 peg to the US dollar, powers all Polymarket trading. Your account balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — USDC consistently maintains its $1 value.
How markets resolve
Upon an event's outcome becoming public, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise market settlements. An outcome submission triggers a 2-hour challenge period; absent objections, settlement becomes binding. Should disputes arise, UMA token holders participate in a decentralised resolution vote.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Register an account — complete email registration and identity verification requirements
- Fund your wallet — transfer USDC via MoonPay, conventional banking, or your existing blockchain wallet
- Explore available markets — select from elections, sporting events, technology developments, entertainment and numerous other categories
- Place trades — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Manage positions — liquidate holdings whenever you choose prior to market conclusion
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through an intuitive mobile application and straightforward email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional opinion surveys and specialist analysis. Throughout the 2024 US election cycle, Polymarket's probability assessments outperformed leading polling organisations. The mechanism is straightforward: financial incentives compel participants to form and express genuinely held beliefs.