Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw participation from highly specialised individuals—academics, engineers, technology commentators—who can interpret technical breakthroughs with greater speed than typical market participants. These venues tend to reward those with specialised knowledge in their respective domains.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint repositories (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging research findings prior to formal peer review
- Patent applications: technological advances frequently show up in patent submissions ahead of public announcements
- Regulatory approval schedules: FDA, EMA timelines for biotechnology product launches
- Technical symposium talks: SpaceX, NASA, and major technology firms unveil strategic plans
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- These markets rely on independently verifiable documentation: company statements, peer-reviewed journals, official regulatory decisions, or established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram features popular science-focused markets. For more specialised topics, Manifold Markets (using play currency) offers a broader selection of community-generated markets.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and they typically possess the strongest informational advantage. The consensus view within academic communities (evident at professional gatherings) frequently moves ahead of market sentiment by several weeks.