Successful prediction market traders don't operate on impulse — they adhere to a structured weekly schedule that allocates research effort strategically. Below is a proven 5-hour weekly framework.
Montag: Kalender und Markt-Scanning (1 Stunde)
- Review the week's scheduled events: central bank announcements, electoral contests, athletic competitions, economic releases
- Scan PolyGram for newly launched markets that have appeared since the previous week
- Narrow down to 3–5 markets where you may possess an informational or analytical edge this week
- Examine your current holdings — do recent developments warrant position adjustments?
Dienstag-Donnerstag: Tiefenrecherche (2 Stunden)
- Conduct thorough investigation into each shortlisted market
- Develop your own independent probability estimate before consulting market-quoted odds
- Compare your estimate against the prevailing market quote — commit capital only when the discrepancy is material
- Apply the Kelly criterion to size each position appropriately
Freitag: Ausführung und Überprüfung (1 Stunde)
- Execute weekly positions during peak-liquidity trading windows
- Monitor markets that resolve this week — record actual outcomes versus your forecasts
- Refresh your calibration log
Wochenende: Leistungsanalyse (1 Stunde)
- Compute weekly profit/loss and cumulative Brier score
- Pinpoint recurring biases or blind spots in your recent forecasts
- Study one relevant research paper or market commentary within your domain of expertise
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Kann ich profitabel nebenberuflich handeln?
- Absolutely — many successful traders operate on fewer than 10 hours weekly. The calibre of your analysis matters far more than raw time investment.
- Welche Tools brauche ich für diese Routine?
- You'll need the PolyGram platform for trading execution, a spreadsheet application for record-keeping, and access to domain-specific research sources. Sophisticated proprietary software is unnecessary.