Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced sustained traffic disruption since late 2023 owing to Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. The market asks whether daily transit calls will recover to a 7-day moving average of 60 or higher by end-May 2026—a threshold that would signal normalisation after months of volatility. IMF Portwatch data forms the sole arbiter, tracking container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo arrivals with no allowance for unreported vessels.

Historical precedent suggests recovery timelines depend less on security incidents alone and more on shipping line confidence in corridor safety. The 2022 Russia–Ukraine war disrupted Black Sea transit for over a year; the 2019–2020 Strait tensions saw similar multi-month suppression. Current 2% implied probability across Polymarket reflects the market's assessment that normalisation within 18 months remains unlikely given the durability of Houthi operations and absence of negotiated settlement. Kalshi and Smarkets show marginally higher odds (3–4%), whilst Betfair's decimal format (33–50 to 1) obscures the probability gradient; fee structures vary meaningfully, with Polymarket charging 2% on net winnings versus Kalshi's 5% and Smarkets' variable commission.

Traders should monitor ceasefire announcements, US naval posture shifts, and insurance premium movements as leading indicators. Recent statements from shipping associations (January 2025) indicate rerouting remains economically preferable to Hormuz transit despite longer voyage times, suggesting structural rather than temporary displacement. Any IMF Portwatch publication showing sustained 60+ daily calls would trigger immediate resolution; the absence of such data through spring 2026 makes the 2% probability defensible.

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.