Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic would need its Nasdaq Private Market valuation to reach the listed threshold on a trading day before 31 December 2026 for this market to pay out ‘Yes’. The current 13% implied probability points to a much lower bar than the company’s most recent financing, with Anthropic confirming a $30 billion Series G in February 2026 at a $380 billion post-money valuation. That leaves a sizeable gap to bridge within the year, even before allowing for the fact that the market settles only on NPM prices, not on broader press reports or secondary chatter. On Polymarket, traders see a simple implied probability; on Kalshi, the same event would usually be shown as a dollar price tied to the contract’s payout structure, while Betfair and Smarkets would present fractional or decimal odds, with fees and market depth changing the effective price. Access also differs: Polymarket is crypto-native, whereas regulated exchanges typically require more extensive KYC and are not equally available in all jurisdictions.

For context, the key reference point is how far Anthropic has already moved and how quickly NPM marks can be updated. Sacra reported in May 2026 that Anthropic was in early talks to raise at least $30 billion at a pre-money valuation above $900 billion, and Bloomberg reported similar sourcing on 13 May. If those talks harden into a signed round, the NPM price could gap higher once the relevant trade date is published, but timing matters because NPM posts trading-day marks only at 1:00 pm ET the following business day. The practical watchlist is the fundraising timetable, any disclosed term sheet, and the cadence of NPM publication through year-end; if December data are delayed, the market can remain open into 4 January 2027.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.