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Raptors vs. Timberwolves

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Raptors vs. Timberwolves" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

1H O/U 96.5 86% 1H O/U 98.5 86% O/U 209.5 84% 1Q O/U 48.5 84% Volume: $3.3M Liquidity: $7.9M Closes: 25 Oct 2026
Open live market →
Raptors vs. Timberwolves

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
86% 14% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
86% 14% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1H O/U 96.586%
1H O/U 98.586%
O/U 209.584%
1Q O/U 48.584%
1Q O/U 44.583%
O/U 211.582%
1H O/U 100.582%
O/U 213.580%
1Q O/U 46.580%
O/U 215.577%
1H O/U 102.577%
O/U 217.573%
1H O/U 104.572%
O/U 219.569%
2Q O/U 51.568%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 52.568%
O/U 221.565%
1H O/U 106.565%
O/U 223.562%
2Q O/U 53.561%
Raptors 1H O/U 52.561%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 54.559%
Spread -13.558%
O/U 225.557%
1H O/U 108.557%
3Q O/U 54.557%
Spread -15.556%
Spread -1.556%
Spread -2.554%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.554%
1H O/U 110.554%
O/U 227.553%
3Q O/U 56.553%
Overtime?51%
Spread -21.551%
Spread -3.551%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.551%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 34.551%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 9.551%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 3.551%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 7.551%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 9.551%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 17.551%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 9.551%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 1.551%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.551%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 1.551%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 1.551%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.551%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.551%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.551%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.551%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.551%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.551%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.551%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.551%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.551%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.551%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.551%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.551%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.551%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.551%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 0.551%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 2.551%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 1.551%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 2.551%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 2.551%
Scottie Barnes: Steals O/U 0.551%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 0.551%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 11.551%
3Q Spread -2.551%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 56.551%
Raptors O/U 104.551%
Raptors O/U 106.551%
Raptors 1H O/U 54.551%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.551%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.551%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 39.551%
Team to Score First50%
Odd/Even Score50%
Race to 1050%
Race to 2050%
Race to 3050%
Spread -14.550%
Spread -20.550%
Spread -17.550%
Spread -19.550%
Spread -23.550%
Spread -25.550%
Spread -27.550%
Spread -29.550%
Spread -31.550%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 19.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 18.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 15.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 9.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 8.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 6.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 4.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 1.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 9.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 14.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 19.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 24.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.550%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 39.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 9.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 14.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 24.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 4.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 14.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 19.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 24.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 14.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 24.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 4.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 14.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 19.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 9.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 19.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 29.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 39.550%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 9.550%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 14.550%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.550%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 24.550%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 29.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 9.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 14.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 29.550%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 4.550%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.550%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 14.550%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 9.550%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 24.550%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 29.550%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 8.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 19.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 29.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 24.550%
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 34.550%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 34.550%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 34.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 9.550%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 7.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 13.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 1.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 3.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 3.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 4.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 9.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 14.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 19.550%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 4.550%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 14.550%
Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 19.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 4.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 9.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 14.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 3.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 13.550%
Jamal Shead: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.550%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 7.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 7.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 7.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 9.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 5.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 5.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 7.550%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 9.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 5.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 1.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 5.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 7.550%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 1.550%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 3.550%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 11.550%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 1.550%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 5.550%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 7.550%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 1.550%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 3.550%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 9.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Assists O/U 1.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Assists O/U 3.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 5.550%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.550%
Anthony Edwards: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Immanuel Quickley: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.550%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Jaden McDaniels: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Kawhi Leonard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Kawhi Leonard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Kawhi Leonard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Kawhi Leonard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Kawhi Leonard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Kawhi Leonard: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.550%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.550%
LaMelo Ball: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.550%
RJ Barrett: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Scottie Barnes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Scottie Barnes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Scottie Barnes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Scottie Barnes: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.550%
Anthony Edwards: Steals O/U 1.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Steals O/U 0.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Steals O/U 0.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Steals O/U 1.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Steals O/U 2.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Steals O/U 0.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Steals O/U 1.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Steals O/U 2.550%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 0.550%
LaMelo Ball: Steals O/U 1.550%
Scottie Barnes: Steals O/U 1.550%
Scottie Barnes: Steals O/U 2.550%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Rudy Gobert: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Scottie Barnes: Blocks O/U 0.550%
Scottie Barnes: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Scottie Barnes: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 44.550%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 11.550%
1H Spread -8.550%
1H Spread -10.550%
1H Spread -12.550%
1H Spread -14.550%
1H Spread -16.550%
1H Spread -18.550%
1H Spread -2.550%
1H Spread -4.550%
1H Spread -11.550%
1H Spread -13.550%
1H Spread -15.550%
1H Spread -17.550%
1H Spread -1.550%
1H Spread -5.550%
1H Spread -7.550%
1H Spread -9.550%
1Q Spread -3.550%
1Q Spread -5.550%
1Q Spread -4.550%
1Q Spread -6.550%
1Q O/U 56.550%
2Q Spread -4.550%
2Q Spread -2.550%
2Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Spread -4.550%
3Q Spread -6.550%
3Q Spread -3.550%
3Q Spread -5.550%
4Q Spread -3.550%
4Q Spread -4.550%
4Q O/U 60.550%
4Q O/U 56.550%
4Q O/U 58.550%
Raptors O/U 122.550%
Raptors O/U 124.550%
Raptors O/U 126.550%
Raptors O/U 128.550%
Timberwolves O/U 104.550%
Timberwolves O/U 106.550%
Timberwolves O/U 108.550%
Timberwolves O/U 110.550%
Timberwolves O/U 112.550%
Timberwolves O/U 114.550%
Timberwolves O/U 116.550%
Timberwolves O/U 118.550%
Timberwolves O/U 120.550%
Timberwolves O/U 122.550%
Timberwolves O/U 124.550%
Timberwolves O/U 126.550%
Timberwolves O/U 128.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 62.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 62.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 54.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 56.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 58.550%
Timberwolves 2H O/U 60.550%
Raptors O/U 108.550%
Raptors O/U 110.550%
Raptors O/U 112.550%
Raptors O/U 114.550%
Raptors O/U 116.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 54.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 56.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 58.550%
Raptors 2H O/U 60.550%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 29.550%
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Points O/U 19.550%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 11.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 9.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 11.550%
Ayo Dosunmu: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.550%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 6.550%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 20.550%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 16.550%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 6.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Points O/U 4.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Rebounds O/U 1.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Assists O/U 1.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Assists O/U 3.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Steals O/U 0.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Steals O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Steals O/U 2.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Steals O/U 0.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Steals O/U 1.550%
Ja'Kobe Walter: Steals O/U 2.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Steals O/U 0.550%
Jakob Poeltl: Steals O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Blocks O/U 0.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Blocks O/U 1.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Blocks O/U 2.550%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Points O/U 14.549%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 3.549%
Jamal Shead: Points O/U 9.549%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 1.549%
Jonathan Kuminga: Assists O/U 3.549%
Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 2.549%
O/U 229.548%
Jonathan Kuminga: Points O/U 9.548%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 9.548%
2Q O/U 55.548%
Spread -22.546%
Spread -24.546%
Spread -4.546%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 14.546%
Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 3.546%
1H O/U 112.546%
2Q Spread -1.546%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 1.545%
Jamal Shead: Assists O/U 3.545%
1H Moneyline45%
O/U 231.544%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 9.544%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 5.544%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 5.544%
1H Spread -6.544%
2Q O/U 59.544%
3Q O/U 58.543%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves42%
Spread -5.542%
1H Spread -0.542%
1H Spread -3.542%
Raptors 1H O/U 56.542%
1Q Spread -2.541%
Spread -1.540%
Spread -6.540%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 9.540%
2Q O/U 57.540%
4Q Spread -1.540%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 58.540%
O/U 233.539%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 7.539%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 11.539%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.539%
4Q Spread -2.539%
1Q Spread -1.538%
Spread -2.537%
Spread -7.537%
1H O/U 114.537%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 3.536%
3Q O/U 62.536%
O/U 235.535%
Spread -8.534%
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 7.533%
1H O/U 126.533%
Spread -9.532%
O/U 237.532%
1H O/U 116.532%
Timberwolves 1H O/U 60.532%
Raptors 1H O/U 58.532%
Spread -4.530%
3Q O/U 64.530%
O/U 239.529%
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.529%
Spread -5.528%
Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.528%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 19.528%
Jamal Shead: Rebounds O/U 3.528%
Jamal Shead: Rebounds O/U 5.528%
1Q O/U 64.528%
3Q Spread -1.528%
Spread -6.527%
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.527%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Rebounds O/U 5.527%
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.527%
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 24.527%
Rudy Gobert: Assists O/U 1.527%
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.527%
3Q O/U 60.527%
Spread -11.526%
O/U 241.525%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 7.525%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 7.525%
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 9.525%
1H O/U 118.525%
1Q O/U 66.525%
Raptors 1H O/U 60.525%
3Q O/U 66.524%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 44.523%
Jonathan Kuminga: Rebounds O/U 5.523%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.523%
1H O/U 124.523%
O/U 243.522%
1Q O/U 62.522%
Spread -8.521%
Jonathan Kuminga: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.520%
1H O/U 120.520%
Jaden McDaniels: Rebounds O/U 5.519%
1H O/U 128.519%
1H O/U 122.519%
O/U 245.518%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 13.517%
Spread -10.516%
O/U 247.516%
Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 3.514%
1Q O/U 68.514%
O/U 249.513%
O/U 251.513%
Spread -12.512%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 9.512%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 34.511%
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 3.511%
O/U 253.510%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 19.510%
Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 7.59%
LaMelo Ball: Rebounds O/U 7.59%
Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 15.59%
O/U 255.58%
O/U 257.57%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 5.57%
Spread -16.56%
Spread -18.56%
Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.54%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 24.53%
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 14.53%

Market context

The Raptors vs. Timberwolves prediction market currently prices this outcome at 86% YES. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:00PM ET: If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors". If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the ga…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1H O/U 96.5 at 86% for "Raptors vs. Timberwolves".

1H O/U 96.5 86% Other 14%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $3.3M.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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