Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president since August 2023, faces removal or resignation before the end of 2026. The 43% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about both his political durability and the constitutional mechanisms available to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, who retains ultimate authority. Pezeshkian won a contested election following Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash; his reformist platform and relative openness to international negotiation have created friction with hardline factions controlling the judiciary and security apparatus.

Iranian presidents have historically faced removal through impeachment, though the process requires parliamentary supermajorities and Supreme Leader acquiescence. Raisi himself survived an impeachment attempt in 2022. The last successful forced departure was Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's constitutional term limit in 2013. Pezeshkian's vulnerability hinges on whether economic deterioration, nuclear negotiations failure, or domestic unrest provide hardliners sufficient pretext to move against him. The 43% probability suggests traders view removal as plausible but not baseline expectation—a reading consistent across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair, though decimal-odds formatting on European books may show slightly different liquidity patterns given regional interest divergence.

Watch for announcements regarding nuclear talks resumption, parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025, and any escalation in US sanctions. Reuters and AP reporting on Iran's internal political manoeuvring will signal shifting power dynamics. The market's settlement hinges on formal announcement rather than effective removal date, creating potential for early resolution if hardliners signal intent before year-end.

Methodology

This page compares Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). Polymarket Alternative UK routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.