Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is treating an Israeli announcement of a full ground-force withdrawal from beyond the Litani as effectively absent from the near-term tape. On Polymarket, traders hold **USDC** positions on **Polygon** and the contract settles through conditional tokens, so the relevant question is not whether fighting eases, but whether there is a clear public announcement that Israel has pulled all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond that river by the deadline.

The closest historical frame is the November 2024 ceasefire logic: Israel tied its withdrawal to the Lebanese army deploying in the south and Hezbollah moving north of the Litani, and then said in January 2025 that its pullout would continue beyond the original 60-day deadline because those conditions were not yet fully met.[2][5] Reporting in May and June 2026 described the opposite direction of travel, with Israeli forces operating beyond the Litani and, in some accounts, holding areas well north of it, which makes a clean reversal to “withdrawn from beyond the Litani” a much higher bar than a routine de-escalation.[1][12][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are official Israeli statements, cabinet or defence-ministry announcements, and any US- or Lebanon-mediated implementation schedule that pairs an Israeli pullback with Lebanese army deployment.[2][9][11] The contract only resolves on an announcement of withdrawal, not a plan, so headlines about talks, phased redeployments, or conditional future pullbacks matter only if they explicitly say the forces have already withdrawn from all territory beyond the Litani.[2][8][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Alternative UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.