Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Alternative UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 34.5 | 84% |
| UMass O/U 20.5 | 78% |
| O/U 40.5 | 72% |
| UMass O/U 23.5 | 70% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State | 69% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 46.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 59% |
| Spread -5.5 | 57% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UMass 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UMass 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Sacramento State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| UMass Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Sacramento State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UMass vs. Sacramento State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| O/U 54.5 | 44% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 44% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| O/U 50.5 | 42% |
| O/U 64.5 | 41% |
| Spread -10.5 | 40% |
| Sacramento State O/U 21.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 38% |
| Spread -11.5 | 37% |
| Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| O/U 58.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Sacramento State O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| Spread -14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, umass vs. sacramento state stands at 84% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between UMass and Sacramento State, scheduled for September 26 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game. This m…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $398K.
Methodology
We track UMass vs. Sacramento State across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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