Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market settles against historical weather data from Weather Underground, the standard reference for US airport conditions. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing before that cutoff, even though the actual high may occur in the afternoon.

New York's late May weather typically ranges between 75–85°F, with occasional outliers. Historical data from the past decade shows highs on 30 May averaging around 78°F, though the range spans from 68°F to 89°F depending on Atlantic weather patterns. The 0% implied probability currently reflected across major books suggests either no active liquidity on this specific date-range combination or that traders are avoiding early commitment on a distant event. Kalshi and Polymarket often diverge on weather markets due to different liquidity pools and fee structures—Kalshi's binary format and lower fees (0.2% maker) sometimes attract tighter pricing on niche dates, whilst Polymarket's AMM model can leave longer-dated weather contracts with wider spreads.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from NOAA beginning in April 2026, which will signal whether La Niña or El Niño conditions favour warmer or cooler patterns across the Northeast. Atlantic hurricane season activity and jet stream positioning in May will be the primary drivers. Early-season heat waves occasionally push New York temperatures into the low 90s, a scenario that would require significant probability repricing from current levels.

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Alternative UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.