Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market settles based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, which serves as the primary meteorological reference point for the Paris region. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final reading must be confirmed by that point.

May temperatures in the Paris basin typically range between 15°C and 25°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that exceeding 28°C in late May occurs roughly once every three to four years, whilst readings above 30°C remain uncommon for this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a conservative seasonal baseline or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately resolve. On Polymarket, this manifests as minimal liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads; Kalshi's binary structure would force a different framing entirely, whilst Betfair and Smarkets typically offer decimal odds that make comparison across platforms straightforward once you convert implied probabilities.

Traders should monitor the extended forecast from Météo-France and European weather models as May approaches, particularly any high-pressure systems that could drive unseasonable warmth. The station's historical data availability on Wunderground is generally reliable, though occasional gaps in reporting have occurred; verification against secondary sources such as the French national meteorological archive may prove necessary if settlement disputes arise. Platform fee structures—Polymarket's 2% maker/taker versus Kalshi's fixed spreads—will influence whether arbitrage opportunities exist across books once more traders engage with the market.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Alternative UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Alternative UK?

Zero. Polymarket Alternative UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Alternative UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.